Is there any regulatory agency actually performing a legit purpose, and not just captured cronies? I don't need or want these experts trying to protect me by depriving me of personal agency in every damn area of life.
Good riddance. PredictIt has been unethical since its 2018 Senate market debacle. Kalshi may have fewer political markets but that's because 90% of PredictIt's "political markets" were asking how many tweets were going to be made by ecelebs like AoC and Trump.
pure libertarian-brain. "yeah they were openly and flagrantly violating the terms of the letter, but it's their competitor's fault for 'snitching' on what they were doing in public!" *proceeds to shill for an even sketchier market with some of the most unhinged contracts i've ever seen* "now prove you're not a rube who needs regulation by letting me inspect your wallet."
In the last 2 years, PredictIt has appeared more a place where Democrats piss away money jacking up worthless contracts (Beto in Texas! Charlie Crust in FL!) than an actual betting market where the people are there to win, rather than to push a political agenda.
On the plus side, this has meant $$$ for me.
On the minus, it's really destroyed its academic purpose
I wonder if there might just be a 4th option, that .gov is cracking down on any prediction markets ahead of the '22 primaries due to the... predictions that are not cleaving to the narrative, let's say. A lot of money goes into polls saying your team's politician is going to win by a landslide after all, and if political parties can't pay to get prediction markets to say what they want then perhaps they decided to just do away with them.
Still captured regulators, just by someone else. Still, if Kalshi can't bring themselves to say "It wasn't me, and I am sorry to see them go" I wouldn't bet against them having red hands here.
Is there any regulatory agency actually performing a legit purpose, and not just captured cronies? I don't need or want these experts trying to protect me by depriving me of personal agency in every damn area of life.
Good riddance. PredictIt has been unethical since its 2018 Senate market debacle. Kalshi may have fewer political markets but that's because 90% of PredictIt's "political markets" were asking how many tweets were going to be made by ecelebs like AoC and Trump.
My view is any analysis based pretty much 100% on Twitter inputs is extremely suspect.
I encourage readers to check the other posts on Karlstack before they subscribe to this "independent investigative journalism."
pure libertarian-brain. "yeah they were openly and flagrantly violating the terms of the letter, but it's their competitor's fault for 'snitching' on what they were doing in public!" *proceeds to shill for an even sketchier market with some of the most unhinged contracts i've ever seen* "now prove you're not a rube who needs regulation by letting me inspect your wallet."
In the last 2 years, PredictIt has appeared more a place where Democrats piss away money jacking up worthless contracts (Beto in Texas! Charlie Crust in FL!) than an actual betting market where the people are there to win, rather than to push a political agenda.
On the plus side, this has meant $$$ for me.
On the minus, it's really destroyed its academic purpose
I wonder if there might just be a 4th option, that .gov is cracking down on any prediction markets ahead of the '22 primaries due to the... predictions that are not cleaving to the narrative, let's say. A lot of money goes into polls saying your team's politician is going to win by a landslide after all, and if political parties can't pay to get prediction markets to say what they want then perhaps they decided to just do away with them.
Still captured regulators, just by someone else. Still, if Kalshi can't bring themselves to say "It wasn't me, and I am sorry to see them go" I wouldn't bet against them having red hands here.